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First Watch Restaurant Group, I (FWRG)
$12.12+0.16 (+1.34%)
Market ClosedLast close Jul 24
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States.
Historical Price
Price (Candle)
50-Day SMA
200-Day SMA
Whystock Brain
The Narrative
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in the Consumer Cyclical sector is trading at $12.12 with a market capitalization of $649M. Wall Street consensus targets $19.45 (11 analysts), implying a +60.5% move over the next 12 months. The stock is currently 38% below its 52-week high of $19.53, remaining 14.5% below its 200-day moving average. On fundamentals, Piotroski 4/9 shows mixed financial quality, Altman Z in the distress zone. Risk note: MACD remains below its signal line. The Whystock Score of 50/100 suggests a balanced risk-reward profile.
Ecosystem Influences
Sell-side targets imply +60.5% upside over 12 months
Long-term trend bearish (price vs 200-day SMA)
Oversold momentum (RSI 33) — potential for technical mean-reversion
Quarterly Financials
| Metric (USD) | Q1 2026 | Q4 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $330.96M↑ | $316.35M↑ | $316.02M↑ | $307.89M↑ | $282.24M |
| Gross Profit | $63.67M↑ | $61.94M↓ | $64.06M↑ | $59.68M↑ | $48.77M |
| Operating Income | $2.33M↓ | $9.48M↓ | $10.65M↑ | $8.36M↑ | $2.00M |
| Net Income | -$2.69M↓ | $15.16M↑ | $2.99M↑ | $2.11M↑ | -$829,000 |
Peer Comparison
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Fundamentals
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch...
Market Cap
Total dollar market value of a company's outstanding shares of stock (Price * Shares).
$649.12M
P/E Ratio
Priced for growth. Investors expect sustained double-digit expansion.
37.61
Beta
High-beta play. Expect amplified moves vs. the broad market.
1.12
Div Yield
Low to zero yield. Return is entirely dependent on price appreciation.
0.00%
ROE
Average efficiency. Growth may require heavy reinvestment.
2.80%
Volume
Today's trading volume
635,656
Recent News
3 Reasons FWRG is Risky and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
Shareholders of First Watch would probably like to forget the past six months even happened. The stock dropped 26.8% and now trades at $12.42. This might have investors contemplating their next move.
3 Restaurant Stocks That Concern Us
Restaurants increase convenience and give many people a place to unwind. But the side dish is that they’re quite difficult to operate because high inventory and labor costs generally lead to thin margins at the store level. This leaves little room for error if demand dries up, and it seems like the market has some reservations as the industry has tumbled by 1.5% over the past six months. This drawdown was discouraging since the S&P 500 returned 8.4%.
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Stocks trading between $10 and $50 can be particularly interesting as they frequently represent businesses that have survived their early challenges. However, investors should remain vigilant as some may still have unproven business models, leaving them vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of the broader market.
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Growth boosts valuation multiples, but it doesn’t always last forever. Companies that cannot maintain it are often penalized with large declines in market value, a lesson ingrained in investors who lost money in tech stocks during 2022.
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