Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR)

PGR Quantitative Snapshot

Academic risk and quality models computed from PGR's own filings and price history, not from analyst opinion.

Piotroski F-Score

5 / 9

Mixed: 5 of 9 fundamental-health tests pass, so profitability and balance-sheet trends disagree.

Altman Z-Score

2.22

Altman Z in the 1.81 to 2.99 grey zone, the band where the model gives no clear bankruptcy verdict.

Beneish M-Score

-2.69

Beneish M below the -1.78 flag threshold, so the earnings-manipulation model finds nothing unusual in the accruals and margin trends.

Sloan Accrual Ratio

-0.051

Share of earnings coming from accruals rather than cash. Higher values historically precede weaker future returns.

Market Regime (HMM)

Bull · 83% confidence

Hidden Markov model fitted to two years of returns, separating bull, bear and sideways states by their own drift and volatility.

Forecast Volatility (30d)

27.3%

GARCH(1,1) 30-day annualised forecast, below the current 30.5% reading.

Market Beta (5-factor)

-0.11

Fama-French 5-factor market beta. The five factors explain 15% of this stock's return variance; the rest is idiosyncratic.

Own 5-Year Median P/E

17.9

The stock’s own historical valuation anchor, which is a fairer comparison than a sector average for a company with a persistent premium or discount.

Model inputs as of 2026-09-08.