Packaging Corporation of Americ (PKG)

PKG Quantitative Snapshot

Academic risk and quality models computed from PKG's own filings and price history, not from analyst opinion.

Piotroski F-Score

3 / 9

Weak: only 3 of 9 fundamental-health tests pass, which is the range associated with deteriorating fundamentals.

Altman Z-Score

4.21

Altman Z above the 2.99 safe threshold, so the model puts bankruptcy risk in its lowest band.

Beneish M-Score

-2.89

Beneish M below the -1.78 flag threshold, so the earnings-manipulation model finds nothing unusual in the accruals and margin trends.

Sloan Accrual Ratio

-0.073

Share of earnings coming from accruals rather than cash. Higher values historically precede weaker future returns.

Market Regime (HMM)

Sideways · 94% confidence

Hidden Markov model fitted to two years of returns, separating bull, bear and sideways states by their own drift and volatility.

Forecast Volatility (30d)

28.6%

GARCH(1,1) 30-day annualised forecast, above the current 28.6% reading.

Market Beta (5-factor)

1.19

Fama-French 5-factor market beta. The five factors explain 35% of this stock's return variance; the rest is idiosyncratic.

Own 5-Year Median P/E

18.6

The stock’s own historical valuation anchor, which is a fairer comparison than a sector average for a company with a persistent premium or discount.

Model inputs as of 2026-09-08.